基于机器学习的金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染患者30 d 死亡及严重并发症风险预测模型的构建与验证

Development and validation of machine learning-based prediction models for 30-day mortality and major complications in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection

  • 摘要: 背景 金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染病情进展迅速,可导致死亡及急性呼吸窘迫综合征、急性肾损伤、弥散性血管内凝血/休克等严重并发症。传统危重症评分对病原体特异性风险特征及早期病情恶化的识别能力有限。基于重症医学大数据库和机器学习方法构建个体化预测模型,有助于早期识别高危患者并辅助临床风险分层与决策。目的 基于重症医学大数据库MIMIC-Ⅳ(v2.2),构建并验证金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染患者30 d 死亡及主要并发症急性肾损伤(acute kidney injury,AKI)、急性呼吸窘迫综合征(acute respiratory distress syndrome,ARDS)、弥散性血管内凝血(disseminated intravascular coagulation,DIC)/休克的机器学习预测模型。方法 回顾性分析MIMIC-Ⅳ数据库中血培养确认为金黄色葡萄球菌阳性的2 536 例成人血流感染患者资料,按7∶3 的比例随机分为训练集与验证集。采用Boruta 算法联合LASSO回归进行多阶段特征筛选, 构建包含不同变量数目的“ 大、中、小” 三种列线图模型, 并通过受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线、校准曲线及决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)评估模型效能。结果 患者30 d 病死率为21.6%。年龄、乳酸、白细胞计数、血小板计数及合并症等是重要预后因素。在统一32 个变量的特征集算法比较中,广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)表现最佳,验证集曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.816(95% CI:0.774 ~ 0.857)。在三级列线图预测体系中,Large 模型在验证集中的AUC 为0.776(95% CI:0.737 ~ 0.814),Small 模型的AUC为0.719(95% CI:0.677 ~ 0.762)。Large 模型预测ARDS、7 d 内AKI 及DIC/休克的AUC分别为0.789(95% CI:0.755 ~ 0.823)、0.690(95% CI:0.649 ~ 0.731)和0.792(95% CI:0.700 ~ 0.884)。DCA显示,模型在较宽阈值概率范围内具有正向临床净获益。结论 本研究构建的分层级模型能有效预测金黄色葡萄球菌血流感染患者的死亡及并发症风险,具有较好的可解释性,为个体化诊疗提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Background Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (SAB) progresses rapidly and is associated with high mortality and severe complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury (AKI), disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), and shock. Traditional critical illness scoring systems have limited capacity to capture pathogenspecific risk profiles and identify early clinical deterioration. Leveraging large-scale intensive care databases and machine learning algorithms to develop individualized prediction models may facilitate the early identification of high-risk patients and aid in clinical risk stratification and decision-making. Objective To develop and validate machine learning-based prediction models for 30-day mortality and major complications, including AKI, ARDS, and DIC/shock-related outcomes, in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection using the MIMIC- Ⅳ database. Methods A total of 2 536 adult patients with blood culture-confirmed Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection were retrospectively identified from the MIMIC- Ⅳ database. The cohort was randomly divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Multistage feature selection was performed using the Boruta algorithm combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Three nomogram models with different levels of variable complexity, namely large, medium, and small models, were constructed. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results  The 30-day mortality rate was 21.6%. Age, lactate level, white blood cell count, platelet count, and comorbidities were identified as important prognostic factors. In the comparison of algorithms using the same 32-variable feature set, the generalized linear model (GLM) showed the best performance, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.816 (95% CI: 0.774 - 0.857) in the validation set. In the three-tier nomogram system, the large and small models yielded AUCs of 0.776 (95% CI: 0.737 - 0.814) and 0.719 (95% CI: 0.677 - 0.762), respectively. For ARDS, 7-day AKI, and DIC/shock-related outcomes, the large model achieved AUCs of 0.789 (95% CI: 0.755 - 0.823), 0.690 (95% CI: 0.649 - 0.731), and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.700 - 0.884), respectively. DCA demonstrated positive clinical net benefits across a broad range of threshold probabilities. Conclusion This study demonstrates that the constructed hierarchical model effectively predicts mortality and complication risks in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection. It exhibits favorable interpretability and provides a scientific basis for individualized diagnosis and treatment.

     

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