遗传异常与早孕期11 ~ 13+6 周超声表型的相关性及其预测模型研究

Correlation between genetic abnormalities and first-trimester (11-13+6 weeks) ultrasonographic phenotypes and development of a prediction model

  • 摘要:
    背景 胎儿出生缺陷严重影响孕妇身心健康,并加重家庭负担。随着超声技术的进步,早孕期11 ~ 13+6 周超声检查已经成为产前筛查的重要部分,在胎儿发育评估、畸形筛查及对遗传疾病风险的早期预测方面发挥着重要作用。然而,目前关于超声表型与遗传异常间的关系尚未完全明确,难以精准识别胎儿遗传疾病风险。目的 探讨早孕期11 ~ 13+6 周超声表型对胎儿遗传异常风险的预测价值,帮助临床医生在胎儿遗传异常早期识别中做出科学决策,从而及时采取有效干预措施。方法 回顾性选取2014年1月— 2024年12月在我院超声诊断科接受11 ~ 13+6 周超声检查的单胎妊娠孕妇,对超声检查发现异常的病例,随访羊水穿刺遗传检测结果。根据异常类型分为结构异常组、软指标异常组和结构异常合并软指标异常组,比较各组间遗传异常发生率,分析超声表型与遗传异常相关性。通过LASSO-Logistic回归分析筛选相关变量并构建列线图风险预测模型,评估早孕期11 ~ 13+6 周不同超声表型对遗传异常的预测价值。通过曲线下面积(area under the curve, AUC)、受 试 者 工 作 特 征 曲 线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)、校 准 曲 线、决 策 曲 线 分 析(decision curve analysis,DCA)评估模型性能。结果 本研究共纳入360例早孕期11 ~ 13+6 超声检查异常的单胎妊娠孕妇,平均年龄(32.39±4.31)岁,其中89例(24.7%)存在遗传异常,以染色体数目异常为主82.0%(73/89),21-三体综合征占比最高44.9%(40/89)。不同超声表型组间遗传异常发生率结构异常组为47.8%(11/23),软指标异常组为18.9%(56/296),结构异常合并软指标异常组最高,达53.7%(22/41),三组比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。亚组分析显示,和单种软指标异常相比,两种结构异常、两种及以上软指标异常、一种结构异常合并一种软指标异常、多种结构异常合并软指标异常组遗传异常比例明显增高(P<0.05)。单纯软指标异常中,NT≥3.0 mm 组遗传异常率为 17.4%,高于 2.5 mm≤NT<3.0 mm 组的 13.9%,鼻骨异常组达25.0%,且随着软指标异常数量增加,风险进一步升高(两种及以上异常组最高达60.0%);经LASSO-Logistic回归最终确定9个关键变量(年龄、超声孕周、单纯软指标异常、NT分组、鼻骨异常、单纯结构异常、皮肤水肿、心脏结构异常、颈部淋巴水囊瘤)。基于上述变量构建的风险预测模型AUC为0.782(95% CI:0.723 ~ 0.841),校准曲线表明预测概率与实际概率一致性良好,DCA曲线显示模型在阈值概率0 ~ 0.9范围内净收益较高。结论 早孕期11 ~ 13+6 周超声异常表型在胎儿遗传异常筛查中具有重要预测价值,多种结构异常合并软指标异常时提示高风险,建议对此类病例行侵入性产前诊断,结合染色体微阵列分析(CMA)、全外显子组测序(WES)等检测技术提高诊断效能。通过LASSO-Logistic回归分析构建的列线图风险模型能在早期有效预测胎儿的遗传异常风险,有助于医生通过可视化工具简化临床决策流程。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Fetal birth defects severely affect the physical and mental health of pregnant women and exacerbate family burdens. With the advancement of ultrasound technology, ultrasound examinations during the early pregnancy period (11-13+6 weeks) have become a critical component of prenatal screening, playing a pivotal role in fetal development assessment, anomaly screening, and early prediction of genetic disease risks. However, the relationship between ultrasonographic phenotypes and genetic abnormalities remains incompletely understood, making it difficult to accurately identify the risk of fetal genetic diseases. Objective To investigate the predictive value of ultrasonographic phenotypes at 11-13+6 weeks of gestation for assessing the risk of fetal genetic abnormalities, thereby assisting clinicians in making evidence-based decisions for early identification of fetal genetic
    anomalies and enabling timely implementation of effective interventions. Methods Singleton pregnant women who underwent 11- 13+6 week ultrasound examinations in the Department of Ultrasound Diagnosis of the First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2014 to December 2024 were included, cases with abnormal ultrasound findings were followed up for the results of amniocentesis genetic testing. According to the types of abnormalities, they were classified into structural abnormalities group, soft markers abnormalities group, and combined structural and soft markers abnormalities group. The incidence rates of genetic abnormalities were compared among the groups to analyze the correlation between ultrasound phenotypes and genetic abnormalities. LASSO-Logistic regression analysis was employed to screen relevant variables and construct a nomogram risk prediction model, aiming to evaluate the predictive value of different ultrasound phenotypes at 11-13+6 weeks of early pregnancy for genetic abnormalities. Model performance was assessed using AUC, ROC, DCA. Results A total of 360 singleton pregnant women with abnormal ultrasound findings at 11-13+6 weeks of early pregnancy were included in this study, with a mean age of (32.39±4.31) years. Among them, 89 cases (24.7%) had genetic abnormalities, predominantly chromosomal numerical abnormalities accounting for 82.0% (73/89), with trisomy 21 being the most common at 44.9% (40/89). The incidence of genetic abnormalities was 47.8% (11/ 23) in the structural abnormalities group, 18.9% (56/296) in the soft marker abnormalities group, and 53.7% (22/41) in the combined structural and soft marker abnormalities group, with significant difference (P < 0.05). Subgroup analysis revealed that the proportions of genetic abnormalities were significantly higher in groups with two structural abnormalities, two or more soft marker abnormalities, one structural abnormality combined with one soft marker abnormality, or multiple structural abnormalities combined with soft markers compared to the single soft marker abnormality group (P < 0.05). Among isolated soft marker abnormalities, the genetic abnormality rate was 17.4% in the NT≥3.0 mm group, higher than 13.9% in the 2.5 mm≤NT<3.0 mm group, while the nasal bone abnormality group showed a rate of 25.0%. Notably, the risk further increased with the number of soft marker abnormalities, reaching up to 60.0% in the group with two or more abnormalities. LASSO-Logistic regression analysis identified nine key variables: maternal age, ultrasound gestational week, isolated soft marker abnormalities, NT classification, nasal bone abnormality, isolated structural abnormality, skin edema, cardiac structural abnormality, and cervical lymphatic hydrops. The constructed risk prediction model exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.723 - 0.841). The calibration curve indicated good consistency between predicted and actual probabilities, while the decision curve analysis (DCA) showed high net benefit across a threshold probability range of 0-0.9, supporting the model's clinical predictive value. Conclusion Ultrasonographic phenotypes with abnormalities at 11-13+6 weeks of early pregnancy are of significant predictive value in screening for fetal genetic abnormalities. The combination of multiple structural abnormalities with soft marker abnormalities indicates a highrisk profile, for which invasive prenatal diagnosis is recommended. Incorporating advanced testing techniques such as chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) and whole exome sequencing (WES) can enhance diagnostic efficiency. The nomogram risk model constructed via LASSO-Logistic regression analysis effectively predicts fetal genetic abnormality risk in the early stage, assisting clinicians in streamlining clinical decision-making processes through a visual tool.

     

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