Abstract:
Background Sarcopenia, defined as the progressive loss of muscle mass, strength, and function in the elderly, elevates the risk of falls, fractures, and death. Despite its high prevalence in the Chinese community-dwelling older adults, there is a lack of robust prospective cohort evidence linking sarcopenia to long-term adverse outcomes. Objective To investigate the longitudinal association between the severity of sarcopenia and adverse outcomes including falls, hip fractures, hospitalization, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults.Methods Data were derived from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Outcome variables included falls, hip fractures, hospitalization, and mortality, with follow-up through 2020. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between sarcopenia severity and each adverse outcome, and Fine-Gray competing risk models were performed with death as the competing event. Stratified analyses were conducted to test the consistency of effects. Covariates included age, sex, residence, educational level, marital status, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and number of chronic diseases.Results A total of 5 429 participants were enrolled in this study. Based on the 2019 criteria of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS), the study population was categorized into a non-sarcopenia group (3 110 cases, 57.29%), a possible sarcopenia group (625 cases, 11.51%), and a sarcopenia group (1 694 cases, 31.20%). During 9 years of follow-up, the risk of falls was significantly higher in both the possible sarcopenia group and the sarcopenia group compared with the non-sarcopenia group, with adjusted HRs of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.14 - 1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.03 - 1.24), respectively. The risk of hip fracture in the sarcopenia group showed a borderline elevation (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.00 - 1.62, P=0.054), while no significant association was observed in the possible sarcopenia group. The possible sarcopenia group had a significantly increased risk of hospitalization (HR=1.20, 95% CI: 1.06 - 1.35) and the most pronounced elevation in mortality risk (HR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.31 - 2.18), whereas the mortality risk in the sarcopenia group did not reach statistical significance. Competing risk analysis showed that all-cause death exerted significant competitive effects on falls, hip fractures, and hospitalization (Gray's test, all P<0.001). The possible sarcopenia group had significantly higher risks of falls (adjusted HR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.30, P=0.011) and readmission (adjusted HR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.29, P=0.016) than the no sarcopenia group, with a cumulative incidence of falls of 50.3% in the possible sarcopenia group and a cumulative incidence of hip fractures of 8.1% in the sarcopenia group. Subgroup analyses revealed no significant interactions. Conclusion In community-dwelling older adults, possible sarcopenia represents the stage with the highest risk of falls and hospital readmission, indicating that the prefrail stage of sarcopenia is a critical window for preventing falls and readmission. It is recommended that screening for possible sarcopenia be incorporated into routine health examinations for older adults, shifting the intervention window earlier to reduce the disease burden in the aging population.