基于多基因风险评分的早绝经预测模型在中国女性中的外部验证

External validation of a model for predicting early menopause based on polygenic risk scores in Chinese women

  • 摘要: 背景 早绝经是严重影响女性生殖健康的疾病,不仅导致生育力下降,还增加骨质疏松、心血管疾病等多种慢性病的发病风险。现有研究表明,遗传因素在绝经年龄差异中起重要作用。基于全基因组关联研究(genome-wide association studies,GWAS)构建的多基因风险评分(polygenic risk score,PRS)模型可用于评估个体遗传易感性,但其在中国女性中的适用性尚未得到验证。目的 评价既往构建的基于多基因风险评分的早绝经预测模型在中国女性中的区分能力及风险分层价值。方法 2023 年9 月至2024 年6 月招募的早绝经女性作为早绝经组,以2025 年4 月至2025 年8 月招募的45 例绝经年龄大于45 岁或者年满45 岁尚未绝经的自愿受试者为正常绝经对照组。使用Illumina ASA基因芯片检测基因组单核苷酸多态性,并计算PRS 得分。基于受试者PRS 百分位结果,对既有基于PRS 的早绝经预测模型在中国女性中的预测性能进行外部验证。采用Logistic 回归分析PRS风险分层与早绝经发生之间的关联,并计算优势比及其95%置信区间。通过绘制受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线并计算ROC曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC),评价PRS 百分位对早绝经的判别能力;基于既有模型及既往研究确定的PRS风险分层标准,比较不同遗传风险分层中早绝经病例比例的分布差异。结果 研究共纳入早绝经组100 例,正常绝经对照组45 例中国女性,其中早绝经组95 例、对照组41 例提供完整身高体重信息。早绝经组年龄显著低于对照组(36.2±6.8 岁vs 52.3±5.2 岁,P<0.001),体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)略低(22.2±2.8 kg/m2 vs 23.5±3.6 kg/m2,P=0.032),吸烟饮酒比例相似,经常熬夜在早绝经组更常见(74.5% vs 19.5%,P<0.001)。早绝经组PRS百分位显著低于正常绝经对照组17.2%(4.1%,37.1%) vs 40.0%(19.5%,58.8%),P<0.001,高遗传风险人群(PRS百分位≤10%)比例显著升高(40.0% vs 15.6%,P=0.004)。Logistic 回归分析显示,高遗传风险组发生早绝经的风险显著增加(OR=3.619,95% CI:1.545 ~ 9.565);校正BMI 及生活方式因素后,该关联仍有统计学意义(调整后OR=7.974,95%CI:2.617 ~ 28.754)。此外,经常熬夜与早绝经风险增加显著相关,而BMI 与早绝经风险呈负相关。ROC分析显示,该PRS 模型在中国女性中的预测效能为中等水平,AUC为0.705(95% CI:0.613 ~ 0.795),与原模型报道的AUC(0.723)接近。结论 基于欧洲人群GWAS数据构建的PRS 早绝经预测模型在中国女性人群中具有一定的跨人群判别能力及风险分层价值,可用于识别早绝经高遗传风险人群,但其预测性能仍有限,未来仍需结合临床及环境因素进一步优化模型。

     

    Abstract: Background Early menopause is a condition that significantly impacts female reproductive health, not only diminishing fertility but also increasing the risk of developing various chronic diseases such as osteoporosis and cardiovascular disorders. Existing research indicates that genetic factors play a significant role in variations in menopausal age. Polygenic risk score models, constructed based on genome-wide association studies, can be used to assess individual genetic susceptibility. However, their applicability among Chinese women remains to be validated. Objective To evaluate the discriminatory ability and risk stratification value of previously developed models for predicting early menopause based on polygenic risk scores (PRS) in Chinese women. Methods Women with early menopause recruited from September 2023 to June 2024 were assigned to the early menopause group, while 45 volunteer participants recruited from April 2025 to August 2025, who had reached the age of 45 or older and had not yet undergone menopause, were assigned to the normal menopause control group. Genomic single-nucleotide polymorphisms were detected using the Illumina ASA gene chip, and PRS scores were calculated. Based on the participants' PRS percentile results, the predictive performance of existing PRS-based early menopause prediction models in Chinese women was externally validated. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between PRS risk stratification and the occurrence of early menopause, and the odds ratio and its 95% confidence interval were calculated. The discriminatory ability of PRS percentiles for early menopause was evaluated by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating the area under the curve (AUC). Based on PRS risk stratification criteria established by existing models and previous studies, differences in the distribution of early menopause cases across different genetic risk strata were compared. Results A total of 145 Chinese women were enrolled, comprising 100 with premature menopause and 45 with normal-age menopause. Complete height and weight data were available for 95 cases in the premature menopause group and 41 cases in the control group. The mean age in the early menopause group was significantly lower than that in the control group (36.2 ± 6.8 years vs 52.3 ± 5.2 years, P<0.001), and body mass index (BMI) was slightly lower (22.2 ± 2.8 kg/m2 vs 23.5 ± 3.6 kg/m2, P = 0.032). with similar rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, whilst staying up late was more common in the early menopause group (74.5% vs 19.5%, P<0.001). The PRS percentile in the early menopause group was significantly lower than that in the normal menopause control group 17.2% (4.1%, 37.1%) vs 40.0% (19.5%, 58.8%), P<0.001, and the proportion of individuals with high genetic risk (PRS percentile ≤ 10%) was significantly higher (40.0% vs 15.6%, P = 0.004). Logistic regression analysis revealed a significantly increased risk of early menopause in the high genetic risk group (OR=3.619, 95% CI: 1.545 - 9.565); this association remained statistically significant after adjusting BMI and lifestyle factors (adjusted OR=7.974, 95% CI: 2.617 - 28.754). Furthermore, frequent late-night sleeping was significantly associated with an increased risk of early menopause, while BMI was negatively correlated with the risk of early menopause. ROC analysis indicated that the predictive performance of this PRS model among Chinese women was moderate, with an AUC of 0.705 (95% CI: 0.613- 0.795), which was close to the AUC reported for the original model (0.723).Conclusion The PRS-based model for predicting early menopause, developed using GWAS data from European populations, demonstrates a certain degree of cross-population discriminatory power and value for risk stratification in Chinese women. It can be used to identify individuals at high genetic risk of early menopause; however, its predictive performance remains limited, and further optimization of the model is required in the future by incorporating clinical and environmental factors.

     

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