基于影像组学特征的胰腺神经内分泌肿瘤肝转移患者对索凡替尼的治疗反应预测模型研究

Radiomics model for predicting treatment response to surufatinib in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases

  • 摘要: 背景 索凡替尼在晚期胰腺神经内分泌肿瘤(pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors,pNETs)中显示出良好的疗效。然而,准确且无创地识别出从索凡替尼治疗中获益的患者仍具挑战性。目的 建立基于影像组学的机器学习模型,用于预测索凡替尼治疗pNETs 肝转移患者治疗反应,解析关键影像特征。方法 回顾性收集来自7 个中心的pNETs 肝转移患者的增强CT 门静脉期(portal venous phase,PVP)影像及临床资料。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(least absolute shrinkage andselection operator,LASSO)回归筛选出非零系数关键特征,并结合Bootstrap 重采样筛选稳定的影像特征。采用嵌套交叉验证策略,基于堆叠集成算法构建机器学习模型,以支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)、随机森林(random forest,RF)、XGBoost(eXtreme gradient boosting)3 种算法作为初级分类器,次级分类器采用多层感知机(multilayer perceptron,MLP)进行融合建模,用于预测索凡替尼治疗反应(靶病灶缩小>15%定义为应答)。同时基于临床变量,通过多变量逻辑回归建立临床模型,与机器学习模型进行对比。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、特异度、敏感度和准确率、校准曲线、决策曲线等方面评估模型的性能。此外,利用LASSO回归特征系数分析影像组学特征与治疗反应间的相关性。结果 最终102 例患者纳入本研究,应答组和无应答组的患者各51 例。基于LASSO 回归筛选出的5 个Bootstrap 重采样法中高频入选的核心影像组学特征构建的机器学习模型显示出较好的判别能力,AUC为0.805、准确率为76.47%,敏感度为84.31%,其整体表现优于对应临床模型(AUC=0.623,准确率=68.40%,敏感度=74.62%)。在总体数据集中模型预测的应答组无进展生存期(progression-free survival,PFS)较无应答组(HR=0.573,95% CI:0.349 ~ 0.941,P<0.05)更长。LASSO回归筛选的关键影像学特征提示治疗前肿瘤负荷较小、血供更丰富、均质性高的患者更可能从索凡替尼治疗中获益。结论 基于增强CT影像特征构建的机器学习模型显示出预测pNETs 肝转移患者对索凡替尼疗效的潜力,并提示部分影像组学特征可能与预后分层相关。

     

    Abstract: Background Surufatinib has demonstrated favorable efficacy in advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs). However, accurately and noninvasively identifying patients who will benefit from surufatinib remains challenging. Objective To develop a radiomics-based machine learning (ML) model to noninvasively predict treatment response to surufatinib in patients with pNETs liver metastases and interpret the key imaging features associated with response. Methods Clinical data and portal venous - phase contrast-enhanced CT images of patients with pNETs liver metastases from seven centers were retrospectively collected. A machine learning (ML) model was constructed using a stacking ensemble algorithm within a nested cross-validation framework. Support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) served as base classifiers, and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) was used as the meta-classifier for fusion to predict response to surufatinib treatment (response defined as >15% reduction in the target lesion size). In parallel, a clinical model was built using multivariable logistic regression based on clinical variables and compared with the ML model. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Feature coefficients derived from least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were analyzed to evaluate the association between radiomic features and treatment response. Results A total of 102 patients were ultimately included in this study, with 51 patients in the responder group and 51 patients in the non-responder group. The machine learning model constructed using five core radiomics features selected by LASSO regression and frequently retained across Bootstrap resampling iterations achieved a mean AUC of 0.805 , an accuracy of 76.47% and a sensitivity of 84.31%, with overall performance superior to that of the corresponding clinical model (AUC=0.623, accuracy of 68.40%, and sensitivity of 74.62%). In the overall cohort, the model-predicted responder group had a significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS) than the non-responder group (HR=0.573, 95% CI: 0.349 - 0.941, P<0.05). The LASSO-selected key imaging features suggested that patients with lower pretreatment tumor burden, richer blood supply, and higher tumor homogeneity were more likely to benefit from surufatinib. Conclusion A CT radiomics - based machine learning model can effectively predict the efficacy of surufatinib in patients with pNETs liver metastases and identify interpretable radiomic biomarkers with prognostic significance.

     

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