超高龄患者大肠杆菌血流感染的预后与关联因素:一项多中心回顾性预测模型研究

Prognosis and associated factors of Escherichia colibloodstream infection in very elderly patients: A multicenter retrospective prediction model study

  • 摘要: 背景 血流感染是80 岁以上超高龄患者死亡的重要危险因素。大肠杆菌是其主要病原体,但针对该人群的预后因素,尤其是结合多维度临床指标的精细化评估仍显不足。目的 构建并验证80 岁以上大肠杆菌血流感染患者28 d 死亡风险的预测模型,为临床早期识别高危患者提供依据。方法 采用多中心回顾性研究,纳入2011 年9 月至2025 年6 月北京市解放总医院第一医学中心、第二医学中心及第五医学中心收治的年龄≥80 岁的大肠杆菌血流感染患者。收集临床资料,通过LASSO回归筛选变量,再建立多因素logistic 回归模型,分析28 d 死亡率的独立关联因素。并采用Bootstrap 法进行内部验证。结果 共纳入170 例患者,平均年龄(89.45±6.44)岁,28 d 死亡率率为27.1%。多因素分析显示,高龄(OR=1.19,95% CI:1.10 ~ 1.28)、合并痴呆(OR=3.97,95% CI:1.55 ~ 10.13)、白蛋白水平(OR=0.86,95% CI:0.78 ~ 0.95)与28 d 死亡独立关联(P均<0.05)。预测模型中,28 d 死亡率模型区分度良好,校正曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.841。结论 80 岁以上大肠杆菌血流感染患者28 d 死亡率接近三分之一,增龄、合并痴呆、低白蛋白水平与死亡概率升高相关,这一结果可为该类高危人群的早期风险分层与个体化治疗提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Background Objective To develop and validate a prediction model for 28-day mortality risk in patients aged≥80 years with E. coli bloodstream infection, providing reference for early identification of high-risk patients in clinical practice. Methods  A multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted, enrolling patients aged≥80 years with E. coli bloodstream infection admitted to the First Medical Center, the Second Medical Center, and the Fifth Medical Center of PLA General Hospital from September 2011 to June 2025. Their clinical data were collected. Variables were screened using LASSO regression, followed by multivariate logistic regression modeling to identify factors independently associated with 28-day mortality. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method.Results  A total of 170 patients were included, with a mean age of 89.45±6.44 years and a 28-day mortality rate of 27.1%. Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age (OR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.28), comorbid dementia (OR=3.97, 95% CI: 1.55 - 10.13), and albumin level (OR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.78 - 0.95) were independently associated with 28-day mortality (P<0.05). The predictive model demonstrated good discrimination for 28-day mortality (adjusted AUC 0.841). Conclusion  The 28-day mortality rate among patients aged≥80 years with E. coli bloodstream infection approached one-third. Advanced age, comorbid dementia, and low albumin level are associated with an increased probability of death. These findings may provide references for early risk stratification and individualized treatment in this high-risk population.  Bloodstream infection is a major risk factor for mortality in very elderly patients aged≥80 years. Escherichia coli (E. coli) is the predominant pathogen; however, prognostic factors for this population, particularly refined assessments integrating multidimensional clinical indicators, remain insufficiently explored.

     

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