验前概率联合冠脉CT造影对于稳定型冠心病的诊断价值

Diagnostic accuracy of pre-test probability combined with computed tomographic coronary angiography in patients suspected for stable coronary artery disease

  • 摘要: 目的 比较升级的Diamond-Forrester法(updated Diamond-Forrester method,UDFM)和Duke临床评分(Duke clinical score,DCS)对于冠心病的评估准确性,并进一步分析验前概率与冠脉CT造影(computed tomographic coronary angiography,CTCA)联合应用的诊断准确性。 方法 纳入2012年1月-2013年12月因稳定型心绞痛在解放军总医院心内科先后行CTCA和传统冠状动脉造影(conventional coronary angiography,CCA)的患者523例,分别用UDFM和DCS估算每例患者患冠心病的验前概率。以CCA结果为金标准,分析验前概率、CTCA及两者联合应用对冠心病的诊断准确性。理论验后概率根据贝叶斯公式进行计算。 结果 523例患者中有385例(74%) CCA结果为阳性。与UDFM相比,DCS将更多的CCA结果阳性患者分入高验前概率组(46%vs 23%,P< 0.000 1)。DCS的ROC曲线下面积明显大于UDFM0.77(0.73,0.82)vs 0.71(0.66,0.77),P=0.000 9。根据DCS估算结果划分的低、中和高3个验前概率亚组中,CTCA的敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值及阴性预测值分别是94%、98%和97%,94%、87%和55%,91%、94%和93%及96%、96%和77%。中验前概率亚组的理论验后概率十分接近实际验后概率(阳性:94.7%vs 93.6%,阴性:3.7%vs 4.0%)。 结论 对于稳定型心绞痛患者,DCS比UDFM更适用于冠心病验前概率的估算。将按DCS估算的验前概率与CTCA联合应用,能够有效提高CTCA的诊断准确性,并避免过度检查。

     

    Abstract: Objective To compare the performance of updated Diamond-Forrester method (UDFM) and Duke clinical score (DCS) in patients with stable angina pectoris and assess the combined application of pre-test probability and computed tomographic coronary angiography (CTCA) in these patients. Methods Five hundred and twenty-three symptomatic patients who underwent both CTCA and conventional coronary angiography (CCA) in 2 weeks in Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2012 to December 2013 were enrolled in this study. The pre-test probability was determined using UDFM and DCS for each patient. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare two models. The diagnostic accuracy of CTCA for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) was compared with CCA. The estimated post-test probability was calculated by Bayesian statistics. Results Of the 523 patients, 385 (74%) were positive tested by CCA. Compared with UDFM, DCS reclassified more positive patients into high group (46% for DCS vs. 23% for UDFM, P< 0.000 1). The areas under ROC curves (AUC) for DCS was significantly greater than that for UDFM0.77 (0.73, 0.82) vs 0.71 (0.66, 0.77), P=0.000 9. In patient-based evaluation by CTCA, three pre-test probability groups according to DCS revealed a sensitivity of 94%, 98% and 97%, a specificity of 94%, 87% and 55%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 91%, 94% and 93%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 96%, 96% and 77%, respectively. The estimated post-test probabilities corresponded well with the observed one, especially for the intermediate estimated pre-test probability group (positive:94.7% vs 93.6%, negative:3.7% vs 4.0%). Conclusion Compared with UDFM, DCS has a better performance in calculating pretest probabilities in patients with stable angina pectoris. In addition, the combined application of DCS and CTCA can avoid unnecessary tests.

     

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