探讨建立乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭预后影响因素分析的新模型

Prognostic factors of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and establishment of a new prognosis model

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨影响乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭(hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure,HBV-ACLF)短期预后的影响因素,建立预后新模型。方法 收集2014年3月-2018年3月于西南医科大学附属医院住院的266例HBV-ACLF的患者,分析其血常规、肝功能、肾功能、电解质、凝血、并发症等资料,依据患者90 d临床结局分为生存组与死亡组,通过单因素分析、多因素logistic回归等方法分析HBV-ACLF患者短期预后危险因素,建立预后模型,应用ROC曲线评价终末期肝病模型(model for end-stage liver disease,MELD)以及新模型的预测效能。结果 266例HBV-ACLF患者中,84例死亡,死亡率为31.6%。红细胞分布宽度(OR:1.135,95% CI:1.046 ~ 1.231)、肝性脑病(OR:3.625;95% CI:1.744 ~7.535)、肌酐(OR:1.016;95% CI:1.007 ~ 1.025)、国际标准化比值(OR:1.999;95% CI:1.415 ~ 2.825)是影响HBV-ACLF患者90 d临床结局的独立预测因素。应用ROC曲线分析显示,新模型的曲线下面积为0.824,高于MELD评分的0.779(P=0.027)。结论 红细胞分布宽度、肝性脑病、肌酐、国际标准化比值是HBV-ACLF患者90 d预后的独立预测因素。基于上述指标建立的新模型较MELD评分有更好的预测价值。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the factors affecting the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF),and establish a new prognosis model. Methods Totally 266 patients with HBV-ACLF who were hospitalized in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from March 2014 to March 2018 were enrolled in our study and divided into survival group and death group according to their prognosis at 90 days.The results of routine hematological tests,liver function,renal function,coagulation test,complications and other indicators at admission were analyzed.Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the risk factors for death of the patients,and then a new prediction model was established.Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the prognostic value of end-stage liver disease (MELD) and the new model. Results Of the 266 HBV-related ACLF patients,84 patients died and the mortality rate was 31.6%.RDW (OR:1.135,95% CI:1.046-1.231),hepatic encephalopathy (HE) (OR:3.625;95% CI:1.744-7.535),creatinine (Cr)(OR:1.016;95% CI:1.007-1.025) and INR (OR:1.999;95% CI:1.415-2.825) were the independent prognostic factors for predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients (all P<0.05).Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the new model was significantly higher than that of the MELD (0.824 vs 0.779,P=0.027). Conclusion RDW,HE,Cr and INR are the independent risk factors predicting the 90-day prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.The new model based on the four indices has better predicting value than MELD.

     

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